About The Margin Desk

Most sports coverage tells you what already happened. We’re interested in what’s likely to happen next — and why the numbers behind that answer are more truthful than any take we could give.

The Margin Desk started as a set of models, carefully developed over the past two years. These probability engines were built to ask specific questions: which team is favored tonight, who deserves to make the playoffs, can I trust this polling data? Now, we’re sharing these models and the narratives that they inspire.

Roadmap

Spring

Basketball Models

Comprehensive March Madness Model including tournament bid chances, seed-estimation and odds of advancing through the tournament odds.

Daily game projections for regular season games and projections of regular season standings will be posted each morning.

Once the bracket is set, we’ll publish full team stat category projections for all 67 tournament games.

NBA

Our goal is to launch our dynamic NBA model, which responds to changes in lineups.

Expect game projections and playoff probabilities.

Spring or Summer

MLB and College Baseball

With the College Baseball season underway and the MLB’s opening day right around the corner, we’re excited to share out baseball model. It’ll initially focus on season projections and will later be updated with game projections.

World Cup

Another model that is already mostly-finished, our World Cup model provides projections for each tournament game, probabilities of advancement for each team and features several exciting interactives.