Bracketology as of Feb. 23
Published Feb. 23 at 11:30 AM, Updated at 1:30 PM to reflect new AP Rankings
Selection Sunday is just under three weeks away.
Our bracketology works a little differently than most. Rather than ranking teams strictly on résumé to date, we project how each team will finish the season and build the bracket accordingly. That forward-looking approach allows us to anticipate movement on seed lines before it shows up in traditional metrics.
Scroll to the bottom for the entire projected bracket, including projected spreads and win probabilities for each matchup.
Major takeaways
Illinois on the top line
Despite an overtime loss to UCLA, Illinois currently sits as our final No. 1 seed, aided by a projected 24-7 overall record (15-5 Big Ten). The Illini have a 47% chance of remaining atop a region. Their upcoming home showdown against Michigan (Michigan -0.7) looms large: a win would all but lock Illinois into a 1-seed, while a loss would likely drop them to the 2-line and open the door for Florida, Purdue, Houston or Iowa State.
Florida on the rise
Golden’s Gators are currently projected to be a 2 seed, thanks in part due a dominant showing in February and a projected strong finish, culminating with a trip to Rupp Arena on March 7, where Florida is currently favored by 5.6 points.
Kentucky on high alert
Kentucky brought in Mark Pope because hoping to reverse a trend of early exits in the waning years of Calipari’s tenure. Based on currency bracketology, (7) Kentucky would be the only team seeded 7 or better projected to be an underdog in the round of 64 — a precarious position for a blue blood.
The situation on the buble
Cincinnati will grab the last bid and Missouri will be first out, according to current projections. However, the fate of six teams currently rests between 40% and 60%. Missouri, currently the first team out, needs two wins in their closing stretch (Tennessee, at Miss St., at Oklahoma, Arkansas) to have a strong chance of heading to Dayton. Second team out TCU has a chance to make a statement at Texas Tech on March 3 and will close out the regular season against current last team in, Cincinnati on March 7. This matchup could effectively serve as a play-in game.
The Miami (OH) Question
Miami (OH) remains undefeated, but an extremely weak strength of schedule continues to drag down its accomplishments. The Red Hawks are projected to finish 69 in our committee resume score metric, well below the current at-large cutline of 45 after accounting for automatic qualifiers who would otherwise earn at-large bids. As a result, Miami’s 38% chance of making the tournament is almost entirely dependent on securing the MAC automatic berth, where Akron looms as a significant obstacle.
Key games
Monday, Feb. 23
5 Houston at 14 Kansas
This Big Monday showdown in Lawrence is critical for Houston’s hopes of capturing their third consecutive Big 12 title, with a win lifting their probability to 41.1% — up from 29%. A loss, however, would all but eliminate the Cougars, dropping Coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad to a dismal 1.3% chance. Beyond the game’s Big 12 implications, a win would boost Houston’s resume and chance of earning a top 2-seed to 94.7% — including a 17.4% chance of a top seed. With a loss, these probabilities drop to 86.4% and 8.7%, respectively.
For Kansas, a spot in the top four seed lines is at stake Monday, with a 47.1% probability of earning a top 4-seed if they can defeat the Cougars. The Jayhwaks’ chances drop slightly, to a 30.4% chance if they drop a second straight home game (Cincinnati).
24 Louisville at 18 North Carolina
Despite being higher-ranked and the home team, No. 18 North Carolina finds itself a 2.5 point underdog Monday vs. No. 24 Louisville. While both teams are not in contention for the ACC’s regular season crown, each is trying to work up the committee’s S-curve with strong wins to close conference play.
Louisville is currently a 5-seed in our model and can bring their chances of a top 4-seed to 37.9% with a win in Chapel Hill. A loss would lower their chances to just 22%. For North Carolina, a win Monday brings their odds of a top 6-seed up to 51.1%, with a loss dropping the Tar Heels’ chances to 31.9%.
No. 1 Seeds – Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Illinois
No. 2 Seeds – Florida, Purdue, Houston, Iowa St.
No. 3 Seeds – Connecticut, Michigan St., Gonzaga, Nebraska
No. 4 Seeds – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Alabama
Last four byes – Miami FL, Santa Clara, Clemson, Indiana
Last four in – UCLA, UCF, New Mexico, Cincinnati
First four out – Missouri, TCU, San Diego St., Baylor
Next four out – VCU, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, USC
Seeds 9-16 favored in first round
E9 Texas A&M -0.6 vs. E8 Wisconsin
W9 SMU -0.2 vs. W8 Georgia
W10 Santa Clara -1 vs W7 Kentucky
Multi-bid Conferences
SEC (10)
Big Ten (10)
ACC (8)
Big 12 (8)
Big East (3)
WCC (3)
MWC (2)
Bubble teams with Tournament odds between 40%-60%
Missouri 52%
Cincinnati 52%
San Diego St. 52%
VCU 50%
TCU 48%
Baylor 44%
Projected Bracket
