The 22 teams vying for a spot

Feb. 25, 2026

Michigan, Duke and Arizona collectively hold a 55% chance of winning the national championship, but their path to cutting down the nets will be shaped by which other elite opponents they’ll face in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.

With the picture at the top of the bracket beginning to solidify, with Michigan, Duke and Arizona in a class of their own, the biggest remaining question is which other heavyweights will join them on the top seed lines, and which will be forced into their path before the Final Four. As February turns to March on Sunday, a crowded group of contenders is fighting for bracket placement that could define not just their own ceiling, but the difficulty of the road awaiting the title favorites.

Of the 25 teams that we project have already secured a place in the field of 68, 22 have 5% or greater odds of earning a top 4-seed. Michigan, Duke and Arizona have already secured 1-seeds, while Illinois, Florida, Purdue, Houston and Iowa St. remain alive in the 1-seed race.

Illinois has an opportunity to improve their resume Friday night, when No. 2 Michigan comes to Champaign to be the fifth top-10 foe the Fighting Illini have faced this season. A win would boost its odds of being a 1-seed to 44% — up from 37% — while a loss would drop their chances to 31%.

Florida, perhaps the hottest team in the country with seven straight SEC wins, will host College Gameday for the second consecutive year, welcoming the 20-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks to Gainesville. Assuming that the Gators take care of business in Austin on Wednesday, the Gators can clinch at least a share of the regular-season SEC title, a feat Florida has not accomplished since Billy Donnovan led the Gators to a Final Four in 2014. A win against Calipari’s squad would see Florida’s chances of being a 1-seed up to 32%, with a 19% probability following a loss.

Houston, coming off three straight losses for the first time since 2017, remains a likely candidate for at least a 2-seed, with a 72% probability. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars will probably find itself a 2-seed, but for an outside chance of remaining in the 1-seed conversation Houston must find a way to stop their slide, win out and make a run in the Big 12’s gauntlet of a tournament.

Iowa State earned a statement win on Feb. 16, when they downed the then No. 3 Cougars in front of a sold-out home crowd. That win would quickly become devalued, as Houston dropped its next two games, falling to 23-4 on the season. Iowa State will likely need wins vs. Texas Tech (Saturday), at Arizona (Mar 2) and in the Big 12 tournament.

The chart below shows the probabilities of ending up at different seeds for teams with at least a 5% chance of earning a top 4-seed, based on The Margin Desk’s 20,000 simulations of the remaining season.

Other pivotal games include Wednesday’s matchup between the 15th-ranked St. Johns and the 6th-ranked UConn. A win is critical for UConn’s chances of staying alive in the top 2-seed race, with a loss dropping their probability of earning either seed down to just 12%.

Meanwhile, in Fayetteville, Ark., No. 20 Arkansas welcomes Texas A&M in a pivotal matchup Wednesday — with the Razorbacks’ chances of landing in the top 4-seed lines rising to 58% with a win, or falling to just 40% with a loss.

This week’s slate offers the teams on the fringe of the coveted top seed lines one of the fleeting opportunities to meaningfully reshape their postseason outlook. With many contenders clustered together, results can swing seeding probabilities by the double digits — creating ripple effects that will define this year’s bracket.