Bracketology as of Feb. 26
Published Feb. 26 at 4:02 PM
There are only three games left in the regular season.
Our bracketology works a little differently than most. Rather than ranking teams strictly on résumé to date, we project how each team will finish the season and build the bracket accordingly. That forward-looking approach allows us to anticipate movement on seed lines before it shows up in traditional metrics.
Scroll to the bottom for the entire projected bracket, including projected spreads and win probabilities for each matchup.
Major takeaways
UConn returns to the top
The Huskies avenged a loss early in Feb. on Wednesday night, dismantling No. 15 St. Johns at home 72-40. The Red Storm failed to make a field goal in the final 17 minutes of the game. This win improves UConn’s resume enough to return them to a 1-seed, where Illinois had just taken their spot. UConn hosts Seton Hall in a must-win for the Pirates, as they currently are outside of the bubble. Should UConn manage a win Saturday and again on Mar. 7 at Marquette, they will almost certainly claim the final 1-seed and a trip to the South region.
The situation on the bubble
Missouri has re-entered the field of 68, following a close win at home vs. No. 22 Tennessee. Baylor has slipped outside of the bubble, with just a 27% chance of making the dance, following a close loss to Arizona. UCF’s statement win against BYU has lifted them to the top of the bubble, with a 74% chance of selection. New Mexico, Cincinnati, and TCU are the teams closest to 50% right now, per the Margin Desk’s model.
Key games
Thursday, Feb. 26
13 Michigan State at 8 Purdue
Michigan State and Coach Tom Izzo begin a difficult closing stretch for the 13th-ranked Spartans Thursday, when they travel to 8th-ranked Purdue. The model currently has Purdue a 5.1 point favorite in a critical matchup for both teams. Any argument for Michigan State to remain on the three-seed line will likely require a win Thursday or Mar. 8, at No. 1 Michigan. A loss in either game drops the Spartans chances of a 3-seed to just 42%, while a win lifts its odds to 58%.
For Purdue, a home win vs. Michigan State would raise its probability of a 2-seed to 56%, with a loss dropping the Boilermakers to a 43% chance. Purdue’s remaining schedule is much more forgiving, however, as they head on the road to Ohio State and Northwestern, before closing its regular season at home vs. Wisconsin.
No. 1 Seeds – Michigan, Duke, Arizona, UConn
No. 2 Seeds – Florida, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa St.
No. 3 Seeds – Gonzaga, Houston, Michigan St., Nebraska
No. 4 Seeds – Texas Tech, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Last four byes – UCLA, Clemson, Ohio St., Indiana
Last four in – Santa Clara, UCF, San Diego St., Missouri
First four out – New Mexico, Cincinnati, Baylor, VCU
Next four out – Seton Hall, LSU, Virginia Tech, Washington
Seeds 9-16 favored in first round
MW9 Miami FL -0.8 vs MW9 Texas
E9 SMU -0.2 vs. E8 Georgia
W9 Texas A&M -1 vs W8 Wisconsin
S9 St. Louis -0.5 vs Utah St.
Multi-bid Conferences
SEC (11)
Big Ten (10)
ACC (8)
Big 12 (7)
Big East (3)
WCC (3)
MWC (2)
Bubble teams with Tournament odds between 35%-65%
Missouri 62.7%
TCU 57.1%
New Mexico 55.4%
Cincinnati 42.1%
Projected Bracket
