The Latest
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Michigan, Duke, Arizona and the Race to the Top 4-seed Lines
Michigan, Duke and Arizona lead the 2026 NCAA tournament race as seeding battles intensify. See top seed odds, key games, and bracket implications.
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Feb 26 Model Performance [MAE 7.63 over 57 games]
awayTeam homeTeam spread awayScore homeSScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS Michigan St. Purdue -5.1 76 74 7.06 -7.5 Michigan St. ✓ Denver Oral Roberts 7.8 80 102 29.76 2.5 Oral Roberts South Dakota St. Kansas City 12.5 73 59 1.47 11.5 South Dakota St. ✓ ✓ North Dakota St. St. Thomas -1.5 62…
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Feb 25 Model Performance [MAE 9.24 over 54 games]
awayTeam homeTeam spread awayScore homeScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS LSU Mississippi 1.4 106 99 5.58 -2.5 LSU ✓ ✓ St. John’s Connecticut -3.8 40 72 28.22 -6 Connecticut ✓ Utah St. San Diego St. 3.5 72 89 20.53 -1.5 San Diego St. Santa Clara Saint Mary’s -3.9 67 86 15.09 -6 Saint…
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Bracketology
Bracketology as of Feb. 26 Published Feb. 26 at 4:02 PM There are only three games left in the regular season. Our bracketology works a little differently than most. Rather than ranking teams strictly on résumé to date, we project how each team will finish the season and build the bracket accordingly. That forward-looking approach…
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Feb 24 Model Performance [MAE 8.94 over 36 games]
awayTeam homeTeam spread awayScore homeScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS New Mexico Nevada 0.9 60 67 7.87 -1.5 Nevada West Virginia Oklahoma St. -0.6 84 91 6.42 -1 Oklahoma St. ✓ Auburn Oklahoma 1.9 79 91 13.92 2.5 Oklahoma ✓ N.C. State Virginia -5.0 61 90 23.99 -6.5 Virginia ✓ Miami FL Florida…
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Feb 23 Model Performance [MAE 6.96 over 9 games]
awayTeam homeTeam spread awayScore homeScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS Incarnate Word Northwestern St. -1.0 59 54 5.99 -3.5 Incarnate Word ✓ Nicholls Lamar -5.2 53 52 6.18 -3 Nicholls New Orleans Stephen F. Austin -12.2 77 73 16.17 -12.5 New Orleans ✓ UT Rio Grande Valley McNeese -10.4 68 75 3.40 -10.5…
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Bracketology
Bracketology as of Feb. 23 Published Feb. 23 at 11:30 AM, Updated at 1:30 PM to reflect new AP Rankings Selection Sunday is just under three weeks away. Our bracketology works a little differently than most. Rather than ranking teams strictly on résumé to date, we project how each team will finish the season and…
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Feb 22 Model Performance [MAE 7.04 over 19 games]
awayTeam homeTeam modelSpread awayScore homeScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS Iowa Wisconsin 1.1 71 84 14.05 -3.5 Wisconsin Florida Atlantic North Texas -0.2 72 73 0.82 -2.5 Florida Atlantic ✓ ✓ UAB Memphis -2.7 78 67 13.67 -5.5 UAB ✓ Green Bay Detroit Mercy -0.8 70 74 3.23 -1.5 Detroit Mercy ✓ Robert…
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Feb 21 Model Performance [MAE 8.15 over 147 games]
awayTeam homeTeam modelSpread awayScore homeScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS Duke Michigan -1.1 68 63 6.08 -2.5 Duke ✓ Arizona Houston -1.1 73 66 8.06 -6 Arizona ✓ Connecticut Villanova 1.6 73 63 8.43 2.5 Connecticut ✓ Texas Georgia -1.6 80 91 9.39 -2.5 Georgia ✓ Kentucky Auburn -2.0 74 75 1.03 -3.5…
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Feb 20 Model Performance [MAE 7.25 over 12 games]
awayTeam homeTeam modelSpread awayScore homeScore Abs Error vegasSpread ATS Winner Straight-Up ATS Saint Peter’s Iona -0.4 64 72 7.6 -1.5 Iona ✓ Siena Merrimack -2.1 72 79 4.9 -2.5 Merrimack ✓ Princeton Brown -1.4 71 80 7.6 -2.5 Brown ✓ VCU Saint Louis -7.5 75 88 5.5 -7.5 Saint Louis ✓ ✓ Canisius Rider +0.7…